Why do some aging societies have pro-elderly oriented social policies and others not? Evidence from 32 OECD welfare states, 1995-2015

What drives the age orientation of OECD welfare states? We theoretically identify four likely correlates of age orientation and construct and estimate the elderly/non-elderly expenditure ratio (ELNER) of social policy for 32 countries between 1995 and 2015 (N=631). We find that not just a higher relative elderly population size but also higher levels of real government debt per child and more frequent ideological changes in governments increase ELNER values. By contrast, a better quality of governance, a stronger historical legacy of protestantism and the post-2007 crisis period decrease ELNER values. Standard political explanatory factors such as left-wing party power or cabinet power in parliament offer scant explanatory leverage. Demography matters but does not reign supreme: good governance, religious legacies, and ideological stability in government are equally key to age group-balanced welfare states.