Sentiment bias in national basketball association betting

Arne Feddersen, Brad R. Humphreys, Brian P. Soebbing

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

We develop evidence of bettors with sentiment bias in the betting market on National Basketball Association (NBA) games. We use measures of team popularity (arena capacity utilization and team all-star votes received) as proxies for the presence of biased bettors. Analysis of point spreads and bet outcomes for more than 32,000 NBA games played in 1981-2012 shows that bookmakers increase prices on games involving popular home teams, an outcome consistent with sentiment bias. These changes in prices do not translate into higher returns for bettors, suggesting that bookmakers shade point spreads to increase profits.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Sports Economics
Volume19
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)455-472
ISSN1527-0025
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5. Jul 2018

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Betting
Sentiment
National Basketball Association
Capacity utilization
Vote
Betting markets
Profit

Keywords

  • NBA
  • sentiment bias
  • sports betting

Cite this

Feddersen, Arne ; Humphreys, Brad R. ; Soebbing, Brian P. / Sentiment bias in national basketball association betting. In: Journal of Sports Economics. 2018 ; Vol. 19, No. 4. pp. 455-472.
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Sentiment bias in national basketball association betting. / Feddersen, Arne; Humphreys, Brad R.; Soebbing, Brian P.

In: Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 19, No. 4, 05.07.2018, p. 455-472.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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AB - We develop evidence of bettors with sentiment bias in the betting market on National Basketball Association (NBA) games. We use measures of team popularity (arena capacity utilization and team all-star votes received) as proxies for the presence of biased bettors. Analysis of point spreads and bet outcomes for more than 32,000 NBA games played in 1981-2012 shows that bookmakers increase prices on games involving popular home teams, an outcome consistent with sentiment bias. These changes in prices do not translate into higher returns for bettors, suggesting that bookmakers shade point spreads to increase profits.

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