Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance

Carsten Croonenbroeck*, Georg Stadtmann

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Propelled by the actual demand from the renewable energy industry, the progress of literature on quantitative forecasting models during the past years is extensive. Research provides a vast output of papers on wind speed, wind power, solar irradiance and solar power forecasting models, accompanied by models for energy load and price forecasting for short-term (e.g. for the intraday trading schemes available at many market places) to medium-term (e.g. for day-ahead trading) usage. While the models themselves are, mostly, rather sophisticated, the statistical evaluation of the results sometimes leaves headroom for improvement. Unfortunately, the latter may occasionally result in the rejection of papers. This review aims at giving support at this point: It provides a guide on how to avoid typical mistakes of presenting and evaluating the results of forecasting models. The best practice of forecasting accuracy evaluation, benchmarking, and graphically/tabularly presenting forecasting results is shown. We discuss techniques, examples, guide to a set of paragon papers, and clarify on a state-of-the-art minimum standard of proceeding with the submission of renewable energy forecasting research papers.

Original languageEnglish
JournalRenewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Volume108
Pages (from-to)312-322
ISSN1364-0321
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1. Jul 2019

Keywords

  • Electricity prices
  • Forecasting
  • Point forecasts
  • Probabilistic forecasts
  • Reliability
  • Sharpness
  • Wind and solar

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