Prognostic factors for disease activity in newly diagnosed teriflunomide-treated patients with multiple sclerosis: a nationwide Danish study

Background Clinicians frequently rely on relapse counts, T2 MRI lesion load (T2L) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores to guide treatment decisions for individuals diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS). This study evaluates how these factors, along with age and sex, influence prognosis during treatment with teriflunomide (TFL). Methods We conducted a nationwide cohort study using data from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Eligible participants had relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome and initiated TFL as their first treatment between 2013 and 2019. The effect of age, pretreatment relapses, T2L and EDSS scores on the risk of disease activity on TFL were stratified by sex. Results In total, 784 individuals were included (57.4% females). A high number of pretreatment relapses (≥2) was associated with an increased risk of disease activity in females only (OR and (95% CI): 1.76 (1.11 to 2.81)). Age group 50+ was associated with a lower risk of disease activity in both sexes (OR females=0.28 (0.14 to 0.56); OR males=0.22 (0.09 to 0.55)), while age 35–49 showed a different impact in males and females (OR females=0.79 (0.50 to 1.23); OR males=0.42 (0.24 to 0.72)). EDSS scores and T2L did not show any consistent associations. Conclusion A high number of pretreatment relapses was only associated with an increased risk of disease activity in females, while age had a differential impact on the risk of disease activity according to sex. Clinicians may consider age, sex and relapses when deciding on TFL treatment.