TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognosis for older people at presentation to emergency department based on frailty and aggregated vital signs
AU - Nissen, Søren Kabell
AU - Rueegg, Marco
AU - Carpenter, Christopher R.
AU - Kaeppeli, Tobias
AU - Busch, Jeanette‐Marie
AU - Fournaise, Anders
AU - Dreher‐Hummel, Thomas
AU - Bingisser, Roland
AU - Brabrand, Mikkel
AU - Nickel, Christian H.
PY - 2023/4
Y1 - 2023/4
N2 - Background: Risk stratification for older people based on aggregated vital signs lack the accuracy to predict mortality at presentation to the Emergency Department (ED). We aimed to develop and internally validate the Frailty adjusted Prognosis in ED tool (FaP-ED) for 30-day mortality combining frailty and aggregated vital signs. Methods: Single-center prospective cohort of undifferentiated ED patients aged 65 or older, consecutively sampled upon ED presentation from a tertiary Emergency Center. Vital signs were aggregated using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a measure of illness or injury severity and frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The FaP-ED was constructed by combining NEWS and CFS in multivariable logistic regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Measures of discrimination and calibration were assessed to evaluate predictive performance and internally validated using bootstrapping. Results: 2250 patients were included, 67 (1.8%) were omitted from analyses due to missing CFS, loss to follow-up, or terminal illness. Thirty-day mortality rate was 5.4% (N = 122, 95% CI = 4.5%–6.4%). Median NEWS was 1 (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR): 0–3) and median CFS was 4 (IQR: 3–5). The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) for FaP-ED was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.83–0.90). This was significantly higher than NEWS (0.81, 95% CI = 0.77–0.85, DeLong: Z = 3.5, p < 0.001) or CFS alone (0.82, 95% CI = 0.78–0.86, DeLong: Z = 4.4, p < 0.001). Bootstrapped estimates of FaP-ED AUROC, calibration slope, and intercept were 0.86, 0.95, and −0.09, respectively, suggesting internal validity. A decision-threshold of CFS 5 and NEWS 3 was proposed based on qualitative comparison of positive Likelihood Ratio at all relevant FaP-ED cutoffs. Conclusion: Combining aggregated vital signs and frailty accurately predicted 30-day mortality at ED presentation and illustrated an important clinical interaction between frailty and illness severity. Pending external validation, the Fap-ED operationalizes the concept of such “geriatric urgency” for the ED setting.
AB - Background: Risk stratification for older people based on aggregated vital signs lack the accuracy to predict mortality at presentation to the Emergency Department (ED). We aimed to develop and internally validate the Frailty adjusted Prognosis in ED tool (FaP-ED) for 30-day mortality combining frailty and aggregated vital signs. Methods: Single-center prospective cohort of undifferentiated ED patients aged 65 or older, consecutively sampled upon ED presentation from a tertiary Emergency Center. Vital signs were aggregated using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a measure of illness or injury severity and frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The FaP-ED was constructed by combining NEWS and CFS in multivariable logistic regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Measures of discrimination and calibration were assessed to evaluate predictive performance and internally validated using bootstrapping. Results: 2250 patients were included, 67 (1.8%) were omitted from analyses due to missing CFS, loss to follow-up, or terminal illness. Thirty-day mortality rate was 5.4% (N = 122, 95% CI = 4.5%–6.4%). Median NEWS was 1 (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR): 0–3) and median CFS was 4 (IQR: 3–5). The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) for FaP-ED was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.83–0.90). This was significantly higher than NEWS (0.81, 95% CI = 0.77–0.85, DeLong: Z = 3.5, p < 0.001) or CFS alone (0.82, 95% CI = 0.78–0.86, DeLong: Z = 4.4, p < 0.001). Bootstrapped estimates of FaP-ED AUROC, calibration slope, and intercept were 0.86, 0.95, and −0.09, respectively, suggesting internal validity. A decision-threshold of CFS 5 and NEWS 3 was proposed based on qualitative comparison of positive Likelihood Ratio at all relevant FaP-ED cutoffs. Conclusion: Combining aggregated vital signs and frailty accurately predicted 30-day mortality at ED presentation and illustrated an important clinical interaction between frailty and illness severity. Pending external validation, the Fap-ED operationalizes the concept of such “geriatric urgency” for the ED setting.
KW - Emergency Departments
KW - frailty
KW - geriatric emergency medicinea
KW - prognosis
KW - vital Signs
U2 - 10.1111/jgs.18170
DO - 10.1111/jgs.18170
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36511431
SN - 0002-8614
VL - 71
SP - 1250
EP - 1258
JO - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
JF - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
IS - 4
ER -