Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

Chen Yang Hsu; Ya Mei Chen; Chiu Wen Su; Mei Sheng Ku; Yeol Kim; Tim Jensen; Dih Ling Luh

doi:10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

Chen Yang Hsu, Ya Mei Chen, Chiu Wen Su, Mei Sheng Ku, Yeol Kim, Tim Jensen, Dih Ling Luh^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Background
The COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context.

Methods
The risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea.

Results
Through the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI: 900–2176) to 294 (95% CI: 169–420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R₀) = 6.02) and 579 (R₀ = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R₀ = 3.00).

Conclusion
We provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.

Original language	English
Journal	Journal of the Formosan Medical Association
Volume	120
Issue number	Suppl. 1
Pages (from-to)	S57-S68
ISSN	0929-6646
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017
Publication status	Published - Jun 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Mass gathering
Non-pharmaceutical intervention
Religious activity
Humans
Religion
Crowding
Taiwan/epidemiology
SARS-CoV-2
Republic of Korea/epidemiology
COVID-19/prevention & control
Communicable Disease Control/methods
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control

Documents & Links

10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Open Access VersionFinal published version, 2.13 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{6b26fce0d3e547a0a6f13957b6409f9d,

title = "Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)",

abstract = "BackgroundThe COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context. MethodsThe risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea. ResultsThrough the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI: 900–2176) to 294 (95% CI: 169–420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R0) = 6.02) and 579 (R0 = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R0 = 3.00). ConclusionWe provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Mass gathering, Non-pharmaceutical intervention, Religious activity, Humans, Religion, Crowding, Taiwan/epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2, Republic of Korea/epidemiology, COVID-19/prevention & control, Communicable Disease Control/methods, Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control",

author = "Hsu, {Chen Yang} and Chen, {Ya Mei} and Su, {Chiu Wen} and Ku, {Mei Sheng} and Yeol Kim and Tim Jensen and Luh, {Dih Ling}",

note = "Funding Information: Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 109-2327-B-002-009). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges and Opportunities Edited by Hsiu-Hsi Chen, Li-Min Huang Volume 120, Supplement 1, Pages E1-E12, S1-S118 (June 2021)",

year = "2021",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017",

language = "English",

volume = "120",

pages = " S57--S68",

journal = "Journal of the Formosan Medical Association",

issn = "0929-6646",

publisher = "Excerpta Medica Asia Ltd.",

number = "Suppl. 1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

AU - Hsu, Chen Yang

AU - Chen, Ya Mei

AU - Su, Chiu Wen

AU - Ku, Mei Sheng

AU - Kim, Yeol

AU - Jensen, Tim

AU - Luh, Dih Ling

N1 - Funding Information: Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 109-2327-B-002-009). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges and Opportunities Edited by Hsiu-Hsi Chen, Li-Min Huang Volume 120, Supplement 1, Pages E1-E12, S1-S118 (June 2021)

PY - 2021/6

Y1 - 2021/6

N2 - BackgroundThe COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context. MethodsThe risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea. ResultsThrough the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI: 900–2176) to 294 (95% CI: 169–420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R0) = 6.02) and 579 (R0 = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R0 = 3.00). ConclusionWe provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.

AB - BackgroundThe COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context. MethodsThe risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea. ResultsThrough the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI: 900–2176) to 294 (95% CI: 169–420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R0) = 6.02) and 579 (R0 = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R0 = 3.00). ConclusionWe provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Mass gathering

KW - Non-pharmaceutical intervention

KW - Religious activity

KW - Humans

KW - Religion

KW - Crowding

KW - Taiwan/epidemiology

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Republic of Korea/epidemiology

KW - COVID-19/prevention & control

KW - Communicable Disease Control/methods

KW - Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control

U2 - 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017

DO - 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.04.017

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34119393

AN - SCOPUS:85107690330

SN - 0929-6646

VL - 120

SP - S57-S68

JO - Journal of the Formosan Medical Association

JF - Journal of the Formosan Medical Association

IS - Suppl. 1

ER -

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

Abstract

Keywords

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