Predicting long-term treatment with short-acting opioids: the role of general practice consultations and sociodemographic factors

Background: Long-term treatment with short-acting opioids is not recommended for patients with chronic nonmalignant pain. General practitioners should assess patient's risk of developing long-term treatment prior to prescribing. Aim: To identify predictors of long-term opioid treatment among adults with nonmalignant pain initiating treatment with short-acting opioids, focusing on general practice consultations and sociodemographic factors. Methods: A national register-based repeated cross-sectional linear probability model was employed. The study population comprises adult, nonmalignant pain patients who initiated short-acting opioid treatment during the first half of 2019, resided continuously in Denmark throughout the study period, and survived 6 months postindex date (N = 133,291). Results: The risk of developing long-term treatment with short-acting opioids was higher among patients with a higher frequency of remote consultations prior to treatment initiation and among those aged 40–59 or ≥80 years, those residing in the Capital or Zealand Region, those with low income or low educational attainment, those unemployed or retired, and those living alone. Conclusion: Higher frequency of remote consultations prior to treatment initiation and several sociodemographic factors were associated with a higher probability of developing long-term treatment with short-acting opioids. These predictors should be considered when prescribing short-acting opioids to adults with chronic nonmalignant pain.