Monitoring epidemic processes under political measures

Nataliya Chukhrova*, Oskar Plate, Arne Johannssen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Statistical modeling of epidemiological curves to capture the course of epidemic processes and to implement a signaling system for detecting significant changes in the process is a challenging task, especially when the process is affected by political measures. As previous monitoring approaches are subject to various problems, we develop a practical and flexible tool that is well suited for monitoring epidemic processes under political measures. This tool enables monitoring across different epochs using a single statistical model that constantly adapts to the underlying process, and therefore allows both retrospective and on-line monitoring of epidemic processes. It is able to detect essential shifts and to identify anomaly conditions in the epidemic process, and it provides decision-makers a reliable method for rapidly learning from trends in the epidemiological curves. Moreover, it is a tool to evaluate the effectivity of political measures and to detect the transition from pandemic to endemic. This research is based on a comprehensive COVID-19 study on infection rates under political measures in line with the reporting of the Robert Koch Institute covering the entire period of the pandemic in Germany.

Original languageEnglish
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Volume43
Issue number11
Pages (from-to)2122-2160
ISSN0277-6715
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20. May 2024

Keywords

  • control charts
  • coronavirus pandemic
  • COVID-19
  • epidemiological curve
  • infection rate
  • prescriptive analytics
  • Epidemics
  • Pandemics
  • Humans
  • Germany/epidemiology
  • Models, Statistical
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • COVID-19/epidemiology
  • Politics

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