Lower versus higher blood pressure targets in comatose patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest—Protocol for a secondary Bayesian analysis of the box trial

Background: The management of blood pressure targets during intensive care after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a topic of debate. The blood Pressure and Oxygenation Targets After OHCA (BOX) trial explored the efficacy of two different blood pressure targets in 789 patients during intensive care after OHCA. In the primary frequentist analysis, no statistically significant differences were found for neurological outcome after 90 days. Methods: This protocol outlines secondary Bayesian analyses of 365-day all-cause mortality and two secondary outcomes: neurological outcome after 365 days, and plasma neuron-specific enolase, a biomarker of brain injury, after 48 h. We will employ adjusted Bayesian logistic and linear regressions, presenting results as relative and absolute differences with 95% confidence intervals. We will use weakly informative priors for the primary analyses, and skeptical and evidence-based priors (where available) in sensitivity analyses. Exact probabilities for any benefit/harm will be presented for all outcomes, along with probabilities of clinically important benefit/harm (risk differences larger than 2%-points absolute) and no clinically important differences for the binary outcomes. We will assess whether heterogeneity of treatment effects on mortality is present according to lactate at admission, time to return of spontaneous circulation, primary shockable rhythm, age, hypertension, and presence of ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Discussion: This secondary analysis of the BOX trial aim to complement the primary frequentist analysis by quantifying the probabilities of beneficial or harmful effects of different blood pressure targets. This approach seeks to provide clearer insights for researchers and clinicians into the effectiveness of these blood pressure management strategies in acute medical conditions, particularly focusing on mortality, neurological outcomes, and neuron-specific enolase.