Human lifespan records are not remarkable but their durations are

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

70 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? The current record stands at 122 years, 164 days and has held for over 20 years and is more than four and three quarter years higher than the previous record. The value and persistence of this record have surprised some researchers, with some even questioning its veracity. There have been previous attempts in the literature to answer questions about how long this record might stand and whether it is truly exceptional but the focus has been mainly on the record ages, using ad hoc tools. This article contributes in two new ways. First we study lifespan records via the (inter-) record times and second we make use of specific tools from statistical Records Theory. We find that the occurrence of the present record was not surprising. We estimate around a 25% chance that the record would have survived until now and around a one in five chance that it will survive until 2050, demonstrating remarkable persistence.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0212345
JournalPLOS ONE
Volume14
Issue number3
Number of pages9
ISSN1932-6203
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Fingerprint

Research Personnel
duration
researchers

Cite this

@article{0faa4c2066ff427da74b6d14b40b335d,
title = "Human lifespan records are not remarkable but their durations are",
abstract = "Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? The current record stands at 122 years, 164 days and has held for over 20 years and is more than four and three quarter years higher than the previous record. The value and persistence of this record have surprised some researchers, with some even questioning its veracity. There have been previous attempts in the literature to answer questions about how long this record might stand and whether it is truly exceptional but the focus has been mainly on the record ages, using ad hoc tools. This article contributes in two new ways. First we study lifespan records via the (inter-) record times and second we make use of specific tools from statistical Records Theory. We find that the occurrence of the present record was not surprising. We estimate around a 25{\%} chance that the record would have survived until now and around a one in five chance that it will survive until 2050, demonstrating remarkable persistence.",
author = "Anthony Medford and Vaupel, {James W}",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0212345",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "P L o S One",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "3",

}

Human lifespan records are not remarkable but their durations are. / Medford, Anthony; Vaupel, James W.

In: PLOS ONE, Vol. 14, No. 3, e0212345, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Human lifespan records are not remarkable but their durations are

AU - Medford, Anthony

AU - Vaupel, James W

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? The current record stands at 122 years, 164 days and has held for over 20 years and is more than four and three quarter years higher than the previous record. The value and persistence of this record have surprised some researchers, with some even questioning its veracity. There have been previous attempts in the literature to answer questions about how long this record might stand and whether it is truly exceptional but the focus has been mainly on the record ages, using ad hoc tools. This article contributes in two new ways. First we study lifespan records via the (inter-) record times and second we make use of specific tools from statistical Records Theory. We find that the occurrence of the present record was not surprising. We estimate around a 25% chance that the record would have survived until now and around a one in five chance that it will survive until 2050, demonstrating remarkable persistence.

AB - Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? The current record stands at 122 years, 164 days and has held for over 20 years and is more than four and three quarter years higher than the previous record. The value and persistence of this record have surprised some researchers, with some even questioning its veracity. There have been previous attempts in the literature to answer questions about how long this record might stand and whether it is truly exceptional but the focus has been mainly on the record ages, using ad hoc tools. This article contributes in two new ways. First we study lifespan records via the (inter-) record times and second we make use of specific tools from statistical Records Theory. We find that the occurrence of the present record was not surprising. We estimate around a 25% chance that the record would have survived until now and around a one in five chance that it will survive until 2050, demonstrating remarkable persistence.

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0212345

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0212345

M3 - Journal article

VL - 14

JO - P L o S One

JF - P L o S One

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 3

M1 - e0212345

ER -