Excess Risk of Mortality and Hospitalization in Patients with Heart Failure According to Age and Comorbidity – A Nationwide Register Study

Background: Heart failure (HF) is associated with increased risk of death and a hospitalization, but for patients initiating guideline directed medical therapy, it is unknown how high these risks are compared to the general population – and how this may vary depending on age and comorbidity. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients diagnosed with HF in the period 2011–2017, surviving the initial 120 days after diagnosis. Patients who were on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/ angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) and beta-blocker were included and matched to 5 non-HF individuals from the background population each based on age and sex. We assessed the 5-year risk of all-cause death, HF and non-HF hospitalization according to sex and age and baseline comorbidity. Results: We included 35,367 patients with HF and 176,835 matched non-HF individuals. Patients with HF had a five-year excess risk (absolute risk difference) of death of 13% (31% [for HF] – 18% [for non-HF]), of HF hospitalization of 17% and of non-HF hospitalization of 24%. Excess risk of death increased with increasing age, whereas the relative risk decreased-for women in their twenties, the excess risk was 7%, risk ratio 7.2, while the excess risk was 18%, risk ratio 1.5 for women in their eighties. Having HF as a 60-year old man was associated with a five-year risk of death similar to a 75-year old man without HF. Further, HF was associated with an excess risk of non-HF hospitalization, ranging from 8% for patients >85 years to 30% for patients <30 years. Conclusion: Regardless of age, sex and comorbidity, HF was associated with excess risk of mortality and non-HF hospitalizations, but the relative risk ratio diminishes sharply with advancing age, which may influence allocation of resources for medical care across populations.