Analysis of the breakdown of a criminal network*: Criminal collapse

This chapter presents a conceptual model of the violent collapse of a criminal group. The conceptual model reveals a crucial element of a specific criminal culture, namely, that in the absence of a normative authority such as the state monopoly of violence, interpretation is necessary when individuals face aggression. Aggression can be interpreted as a sanction, i.e. as norm enforcement or norm violation by breaking trust. In crisis situations, this ambiguity triggers a cascading effect of mistrust spreading throughout the group. This, in turn, fosters the spreading of violence among the group members. The conceptual modelling of micro-level condition-action sequences reveals structural properties of criminal groups: in flat networks, conflict resolution remains precarious. The trade-off between efficiency of rationally and hierarchically structured organizations and security against police interventions of flat networks of co-offenders is amplified by insecurity against internal violence. This analysis provides an example to demonstrate how condition-action sequences of conceptual modelling provide a methodological approach to interpreting interpretations. This is the benefit of an interpretive account to social simulation for deciphering cultural patterns.