@techreport{24805bf06f684222bc9a9876a227be91,
title = "A perfect storm: first-nature geography and economic development",
abstract = "Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6, corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography determines the levels and location of prosperity.",
author = "Christian Vedel",
year = "2024",
doi = "10.48550/arXiv.2408.00885",
language = "English",
series = "EHES Working Papers in Economic History",
publisher = "European Historical Economics Society",
number = "262",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "European Historical Economics Society",
}