When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

Resumé

We use a bio-economic model of the Greenland shrimp fishery to
study potential ocean acidification (OA) impacts in arctic resources.
Predicted changes in pH in Baffin Bay describe an anticipated though
uncertain drop. Efforts to understand changes in shrimp quantity/
quality from OA reflect significant uncertainty and ambiguity about
direction and magnitude. Estimates on change in growth parameters
show a small, statistically insignificant drop that creates expectation
of only limited direct biological shifts in the bio-economic model.
Indirect changes to shrimp populations in Baffin Bay from climate
change are anticipated due to expected declines in primary production
that then result in equivalent reductions in secondary production, but
the range could be positive or negative. Thus, the scientific findings
on the OA impacts for shrimp are sufficiently ambiguous that our
results find no easily predictable changes in fishery behavior, nor
management changes that might accompany it.
Current management already includes an assessment model
for annual shrimp production including cod predation and involves
yearly survey data, a yearly update of the model, and an annual
recommendation of catch. With current uncertainty levels, this plan
already provides flexibility for management. The long experience
of Royal Greenland in the fishery, and its importance in the socioeconomic
fabric of Greenland, provide more insight into how shifts
in shrimp productivity changes due to OA might translate to human
impacts on the supply side. Efforts to increase lab-level understanding
of changes in taste, size, and/or texture should be undertaken
that can translate to expected shifts in demand and overall market
impacts.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Publikationsdato11. maj 2017
Antal sider1
StatusUdgivet - 11. maj 2017
Begivenhed31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium: Impacts of a Changing Environment on the Dynamics of High-Latitude Fish and Fisheries - Hotel Captain Cook, Anchorage, USA
Varighed: 9. maj 201711. maj 2017
Konferencens nummer: 31
https://seagrant.uaf.edu/events/2017/wakefield-fish-dynamics/docs/Wakefield-2017-Program-and-Abstracts.pdf

Konference

Konference31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium
Nummer31
LokationHotel Captain Cook
LandUSA
ByAnchorage
Periode09/05/201711/05/2017
Internetadresse

Fingeraftryk

fishery
shrimp fishery
secondary production
economics
predation
texture
productivity
ocean acidification
resource
demand

Citer dette

Kaiser, B., & Ravn-Jonsen, L. (2017). When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case. Abstract fra 31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, Anchorage, USA.
Kaiser, Brooks ; Ravn-Jonsen, Lars. / When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case. Abstract fra 31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, Anchorage, USA.1 s.
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title = "When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case",
abstract = "We use a bio-economic model of the Greenland shrimp fishery tostudy potential ocean acidification (OA) impacts in arctic resources.Predicted changes in pH in Baffin Bay describe an anticipated thoughuncertain drop. Efforts to understand changes in shrimp quantity/quality from OA reflect significant uncertainty and ambiguity aboutdirection and magnitude. Estimates on change in growth parametersshow a small, statistically insignificant drop that creates expectationof only limited direct biological shifts in the bio-economic model.Indirect changes to shrimp populations in Baffin Bay from climatechange are anticipated due to expected declines in primary productionthat then result in equivalent reductions in secondary production, butthe range could be positive or negative. Thus, the scientific findingson the OA impacts for shrimp are sufficiently ambiguous that ourresults find no easily predictable changes in fishery behavior, normanagement changes that might accompany it.Current management already includes an assessment modelfor annual shrimp production including cod predation and involvesyearly survey data, a yearly update of the model, and an annualrecommendation of catch. With current uncertainty levels, this planalready provides flexibility for management. The long experienceof Royal Greenland in the fishery, and its importance in the socioeconomicfabric of Greenland, provide more insight into how shiftsin shrimp productivity changes due to OA might translate to humanimpacts on the supply side. Efforts to increase lab-level understandingof changes in taste, size, and/or texture should be undertakenthat can translate to expected shifts in demand and overall marketimpacts.",
keywords = "ocean acidification, Greenland shrimp fishery",
author = "Brooks Kaiser and Lars Ravn-Jonsen",
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note = "31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium : Impacts of a Changing Environment on the Dynamics of High-Latitude Fish and Fisheries ; Conference date: 09-05-2017 Through 11-05-2017",
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Kaiser, B & Ravn-Jonsen, L 2017, 'When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case' 31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, Anchorage, USA, 09/05/2017 - 11/05/2017, .

When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case. / Kaiser, Brooks; Ravn-Jonsen, Lars.

2017. Abstract fra 31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, Anchorage, USA.

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

TY - ABST

T1 - When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case

AU - Kaiser, Brooks

AU - Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

PY - 2017/5/11

Y1 - 2017/5/11

N2 - We use a bio-economic model of the Greenland shrimp fishery tostudy potential ocean acidification (OA) impacts in arctic resources.Predicted changes in pH in Baffin Bay describe an anticipated thoughuncertain drop. Efforts to understand changes in shrimp quantity/quality from OA reflect significant uncertainty and ambiguity aboutdirection and magnitude. Estimates on change in growth parametersshow a small, statistically insignificant drop that creates expectationof only limited direct biological shifts in the bio-economic model.Indirect changes to shrimp populations in Baffin Bay from climatechange are anticipated due to expected declines in primary productionthat then result in equivalent reductions in secondary production, butthe range could be positive or negative. Thus, the scientific findingson the OA impacts for shrimp are sufficiently ambiguous that ourresults find no easily predictable changes in fishery behavior, normanagement changes that might accompany it.Current management already includes an assessment modelfor annual shrimp production including cod predation and involvesyearly survey data, a yearly update of the model, and an annualrecommendation of catch. With current uncertainty levels, this planalready provides flexibility for management. The long experienceof Royal Greenland in the fishery, and its importance in the socioeconomicfabric of Greenland, provide more insight into how shiftsin shrimp productivity changes due to OA might translate to humanimpacts on the supply side. Efforts to increase lab-level understandingof changes in taste, size, and/or texture should be undertakenthat can translate to expected shifts in demand and overall marketimpacts.

AB - We use a bio-economic model of the Greenland shrimp fishery tostudy potential ocean acidification (OA) impacts in arctic resources.Predicted changes in pH in Baffin Bay describe an anticipated thoughuncertain drop. Efforts to understand changes in shrimp quantity/quality from OA reflect significant uncertainty and ambiguity aboutdirection and magnitude. Estimates on change in growth parametersshow a small, statistically insignificant drop that creates expectationof only limited direct biological shifts in the bio-economic model.Indirect changes to shrimp populations in Baffin Bay from climatechange are anticipated due to expected declines in primary productionthat then result in equivalent reductions in secondary production, butthe range could be positive or negative. Thus, the scientific findingson the OA impacts for shrimp are sufficiently ambiguous that ourresults find no easily predictable changes in fishery behavior, normanagement changes that might accompany it.Current management already includes an assessment modelfor annual shrimp production including cod predation and involvesyearly survey data, a yearly update of the model, and an annualrecommendation of catch. With current uncertainty levels, this planalready provides flexibility for management. The long experienceof Royal Greenland in the fishery, and its importance in the socioeconomicfabric of Greenland, provide more insight into how shiftsin shrimp productivity changes due to OA might translate to humanimpacts on the supply side. Efforts to increase lab-level understandingof changes in taste, size, and/or texture should be undertakenthat can translate to expected shifts in demand and overall marketimpacts.

KW - ocean acidification

KW - Greenland shrimp fishery

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

ER -

Kaiser B, Ravn-Jonsen L. When and How to Worry about OA: Greenland Shrimp Case. 2017. Abstract fra 31st Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, Anchorage, USA.