Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 2: time-varying outcomes

Rasmus Østergaard Nielsen, Michael Lejbach Bertelsen, Daniel Ramskov, Merete Møller, Adam Hulme, Daniel Theisen, Caroline F Finch, Lauren Victoria Fortington, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Erik Thorlund Parner

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Abstrakt

BACKGROUND: Time-to-event modelling is underutilised in sports injury research. Still, sports injury researchers have been encouraged to consider time-to-event analyses as a powerful alternative to other statistical methods. Therefore, it is important to shed light on statistical approaches suitable for analysing training load related key-questions within the sports injury domain.

CONTENT: In the present article, we illuminate: (i) the possibilities of including time-varying outcomes in time-to-event analyses, (ii) how to deal with a situation where different types of sports injuries are included in the analyses (ie, competing risks), and (iii) how to deal with the situation where multiple subsequent injuries occur in the same athlete.

CONCLUSION: Time-to-event analyses can handle time-varying outcomes, competing risk and multiple subsequent injuries. Although powerful, time-to-event has important requirements: researchers are encouraged to carefully consider prior to any data collection that five injuries per exposure state or transition is needed to avoid conducting statistical analyses on time-to-event data leading to biased results. This requirement becomes particularly difficult to accommodate when a stratified analysis is required as the number of variables increases exponentially for each additional strata included. In future sports injury research, we need stratified analyses if the target of our research is to respond to the question: 'how much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among athletes with different characteristics?' Responding to this question using multiple time-varying exposures (and outcomes) requires millions of injuries. This should not be a barrier for future research, but collaborations across borders to collecting the amount of data needed seems to be an important step forward.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftBritish Journal of Sports Medicine
Vol/bind53
Udgave nummer1
Sider (fra-til)70-78
ISSN0306-3674
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2019

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