The marginal majority effect: when social influence produces lock-in

People are influenced by the choices of others, a phenomenon observed across contexts in the social and behavioral sciences. Social influence can lock in an initial popularity advantage of an option over a higher quality alternative. Yet, several experiments designed to enable social influence have found that social systems self-correct rather than lock in. Here, we identify a behavioral phenomenon that makes inferior lock-in possible, which we call the "marginal majority effect": a discontinuous increase in the choice probability of an option as its popularity exceeds that of a competing option. We demonstrate the existence of a marginal majority effect in several recent experiments and show that lock-in always occurs when the effect is large enough to offset the quality effect on choice but rarely otherwise. Our results reconcile conflicting past empirical evidence and connect a behavioral phenomenon to the possibility of social lock-in.