The Intelligence Cycle in Denmark: Unwinding and reconceptualising the Process of formulating Intelligence Requirements surrounding the Middle East in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service

Daniel Tallat Rønn Shakoor

doi:10.21996/pv0w-9j13

The Intelligence Cycle in Denmark: Unwinding and reconceptualising the Process of formulating Intelligence Requirements surrounding the Middle East in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service

Daniel Tallat Rønn Shakoor

Publikation: Afhandling › Ph.d.-afhandling

492 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Hvorledes kan et begreb baseret på erfaringer fra det 20. århundredes statslige konflikter, styrke efterretningstjenesters reflekssivitet i det 21. århundredes verden med stigende globalisering, teknologisk innovation og dynamiske trusler? Efterretningskredsløbet er et paradoks. Det 70-årige, begreb er blevet kritiseret for være enten logisk utidssvarende, upræcist eller en normativ repræsentation af, hvad efterretningsarbejde bør være. Og dog finder vi på samme tid begrebet i hjertet af både internationale og nationale efterretningsdoktriner på begge sider af Atlanten.
Formålet i denne afhandling er at udforske, hvorledes den universalistiske, konceptualistiske model for efterretningsprocesser, efterretningskredsløbet, anvendes til at strukturere processen, hvormed efterretningsbehov formuleres i Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (FE) med afdelingen for Mellemøstanalyse som case.
Dette formål blev opfyldt gennem operationalisering af organisationsteoretiker Wilfred Browns analytiske distinktion mellem manifest, assumed, extant og requisite organisation. Disse analytiske distinktioner blev anvendt i et explorativt, enkeltstående casestudie af afdelingen for Mellemøstanalyse i FE. Casestudiet var baseret på empirisk materiale fra flere forskellige kilder. Dels var det baseret på offentligt tilgængeligt materiale i form af at jubilæumsskrift, årsrapporter og materiale fra FE’s hjemmeside. Dels var det baseret på nitten kvalitative, semistrukturerede interviews med embedsfolk fra FE og to af FE’s fremmeste nationale kunder, Udenrigs- og Forsvarsministeriet. Igennem en sammenligning af processen for formulering af efterretningsbehov, som den tager sig ud i FE’s offentlige fremstilling med den samme process som medarbejderne i FE og ministerierne individuelt opfatter og beskriver den, blev processen for formulering af efterretningsbehov uddraget.
Studiet undersøgte begrebets anvendelse i en dansk kontekst.Studiet viste først og fremmest, hvorledes efterretningskredsløbet primært fungerer som en konceptuel mærkat på et langt mere kompleks administrativ rammesætning af en process indenfor New Public Management. Processen består både af en seks-måneder lang proces, hvor de årlige efterretningsbehov formuleres igennem forhandling og dialog med kunderne, og en intern proces i FE, issue decomposition, som udføres ved hjælp af forskellige taksonomiske redskaber. Endvidere viser studies, hvorledes det eksterne miljø i form af Mellemøsten påvirker processen, hvorigennem efterretningsbehov formuleres. Det leder frem til konklusionen at den konceptualistiske model er utilstrækkelig til at forstå og analysere, hvorledes efterretningsbehov formuleres indenfor konkrete nationale efterretningstjenester. I stedet foreslår jeg en analytisk conceptualistisk tilgang, hvor jeg indkorporerer Browns distinktioner, hvilket gør det muligt at undersøge specifikke processer indenfor efterretningsorganisationer og dermed yde støtte til efterretningsorganisationers fremtidige reflexivitet.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Bevilgende institution	Syddansk Universitet
Vejledere/rådgivere	Rynning, Sten, Hovedvejleder Dalgaard-Nielsen, Anja, Bivejleder, Ekstern person Røseth, Tom, Bivejleder, Ekstern person
Dato for forsvar	6. apr. 2022
Udgiver	Syddansk Universitet. Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet
DOI	https://doi.org/10.21996/pv0w-9j13
Status	Udgivet - 6. apr. 2022

Emneord

efterretningskredsløb
national efterretningstjeneste
Danmark
organisationsteori
efterretningsstudier

Dokumenter og links

10.21996/pv0w-9j13

Phd_thesis_Daniel_Tallat_Rønn_ShakoorForlagets udgivne version, 1,01 MB

Citationsformater

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title = "The Intelligence Cycle in Denmark: Unwinding and reconceptualising the Process of formulating Intelligence Requirements surrounding the Middle East in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service",

abstract = "How can the mid-20th century concept, based on the bipolar conflicts of the 20th century, be of any help for national intelligence organisations to stay reflexive and ahead in the world of increasing globalisation, technological innovation and the dynamic threats and hybrid wars of the 21st century? Is it advantageous? Or is it merely flotsam from the Cold War? The intelligence cycle is a paradox. This seven decades-old emblematic concept has been criticised for not capturing the principles of intelligence, for being practically inaccurate, and merely a representation of certain norms of intelligence. Nevertheless, at the same time, we still find it at the heart of international and national intelligence doctrines on both sides of the Atlantic.This dissertation explores how the universalist conceptualist model for intelligence processes, the intelligence cycle, is used to structure the process of formulating intelligence requirements in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), with the Middle East Analysis Department as the case.This objective was pursued by applying classic organisation theorist Wilfred Browns analytical distinctions of manifest, assumed, extant and requisite organisation. These analytical distinctions were put to use within an explorative single within-site case study of the Middle East Analysis Department, using multiple empirical sources of publicly available material in the form of biannual reports, the DDIS website and anniversary publications and nineteen qualitative, semi-structured interviews with senior civil servants within the DDIS and within two of the main national customers of the Middle East Analysis Department, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence. Through pattern matching between the manifest organisational process of formulating intelligence requirements in biannual reports, the DDIS website and anniversary publications, and the assumed organisational process in the words of the Middle East analysts and the customers in the ministries, an extant organisational process was distilled.This study placed the concept inside a Danish context to make sense of the intelligence cycle. The main findings of this study are that the intelligence cycle in the DDIS is practically a label on a much more complex New Public Management framework, itself nesting a mixed bag of analytical tools for breaking down the intelligence requirements. This process consists of both a six months-long process of formulating the annual intelligence requirements through a negotiated dialogue with the customers while at the same time breaking down the annual intelligence requirements inside the DDIS, using different taxonomical tools. Also, the study shows how the external environment of the Middle East structures and disrupts the process of formulating intelligence requirements, creating new, ad hoc, intelligence requirements that challenge the agreed-upon allocation of resources inside the DDIS. These findings lead to the conclusion that the conceptualist model for processing intelligence falls short when it comes to an analytical approach to concrete national intelligence organisations. Instead, an analytical, conceptual approach should be attempted. This approach looks outside the field of Intelligence Studies and invites analytical frameworks from organisations theory to explore and analyse organisational processes to sharpen the reflexivity of a national intelligence organisation for the future. ",

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AB - How can the mid-20th century concept, based on the bipolar conflicts of the 20th century, be of any help for national intelligence organisations to stay reflexive and ahead in the world of increasing globalisation, technological innovation and the dynamic threats and hybrid wars of the 21st century? Is it advantageous? Or is it merely flotsam from the Cold War? The intelligence cycle is a paradox. This seven decades-old emblematic concept has been criticised for not capturing the principles of intelligence, for being practically inaccurate, and merely a representation of certain norms of intelligence. Nevertheless, at the same time, we still find it at the heart of international and national intelligence doctrines on both sides of the Atlantic.This dissertation explores how the universalist conceptualist model for intelligence processes, the intelligence cycle, is used to structure the process of formulating intelligence requirements in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), with the Middle East Analysis Department as the case.This objective was pursued by applying classic organisation theorist Wilfred Browns analytical distinctions of manifest, assumed, extant and requisite organisation. These analytical distinctions were put to use within an explorative single within-site case study of the Middle East Analysis Department, using multiple empirical sources of publicly available material in the form of biannual reports, the DDIS website and anniversary publications and nineteen qualitative, semi-structured interviews with senior civil servants within the DDIS and within two of the main national customers of the Middle East Analysis Department, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence. Through pattern matching between the manifest organisational process of formulating intelligence requirements in biannual reports, the DDIS website and anniversary publications, and the assumed organisational process in the words of the Middle East analysts and the customers in the ministries, an extant organisational process was distilled.This study placed the concept inside a Danish context to make sense of the intelligence cycle. The main findings of this study are that the intelligence cycle in the DDIS is practically a label on a much more complex New Public Management framework, itself nesting a mixed bag of analytical tools for breaking down the intelligence requirements. This process consists of both a six months-long process of formulating the annual intelligence requirements through a negotiated dialogue with the customers while at the same time breaking down the annual intelligence requirements inside the DDIS, using different taxonomical tools. Also, the study shows how the external environment of the Middle East structures and disrupts the process of formulating intelligence requirements, creating new, ad hoc, intelligence requirements that challenge the agreed-upon allocation of resources inside the DDIS. These findings lead to the conclusion that the conceptualist model for processing intelligence falls short when it comes to an analytical approach to concrete national intelligence organisations. Instead, an analytical, conceptual approach should be attempted. This approach looks outside the field of Intelligence Studies and invites analytical frameworks from organisations theory to explore and analyse organisational processes to sharpen the reflexivity of a national intelligence organisation for the future.

KW - efterretningskredsløb

KW - national efterretningstjeneste

KW - Danmark

KW - organisationsteori

KW - efterretningsstudier

KW - intelligence cycle

KW - national intelligence service

KW - Denmark

KW - organisation theory

KW - Intelligence Studies

U2 - 10.21996/pv0w-9j13

DO - 10.21996/pv0w-9j13

M3 - Ph.D. thesis

PB - Syddansk Universitet. Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet

ER -

The Intelligence Cycle in Denmark: Unwinding and reconceptualising the Process of formulating Intelligence Requirements surrounding the Middle East in the Danish Defence Intelligence Service

Abstract

Emneord

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