The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

Søren Kjærgaard, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, James W. Vaupel

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

Resumé

Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi-population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect on the model's life expectancy forecasts. A small reference population tends to perform better compared to a large group of countries. Even when countries share similar regional history and mortality development, this does not imply that those ountries are the optimal reference population among them.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Publikationsdato31. aug. 2016
StatusUdgivet - 31. aug. 2016
BegivenhedEuropean Population Conference - Mainz, Tyskland
Varighed: 31. aug. 20163. sep. 2016

Konference

KonferenceEuropean Population Conference
LandTyskland
ByMainz
Periode31/08/201603/09/2016

Fingeraftryk

Mortality forecasting
Mortality
Life expectancy
Developed countries
Forecast performance
Large groups
Actuaries

Citer dette

Kjærgaard, S., Canudas-Romo, V., & Vaupel, J. W. (2016). The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models. Abstract fra European Population Conference, Mainz, Tyskland.
Kjærgaard, Søren ; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir ; Vaupel, James W. . / The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models. Abstract fra European Population Conference, Mainz, Tyskland.
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abstract = "Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi-population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect on the model's life expectancy forecasts. A small reference population tends to perform better compared to a large group of countries. Even when countries share similar regional history and mortality development, this does not imply that those ountries are the optimal reference population among them.",
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Kjærgaard, S, Canudas-Romo, V & Vaupel, JW 2016, 'The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models', European Population Conference, Mainz, Tyskland, 31/08/2016 - 03/09/2016.

The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models. / Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W. .

2016. Abstract fra European Population Conference, Mainz, Tyskland.

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

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AU - Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

AU - Vaupel, James W.

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N2 - Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi-population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect on the model's life expectancy forecasts. A small reference population tends to perform better compared to a large group of countries. Even when countries share similar regional history and mortality development, this does not imply that those ountries are the optimal reference population among them.

AB - Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi-population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect on the model's life expectancy forecasts. A small reference population tends to perform better compared to a large group of countries. Even when countries share similar regional history and mortality development, this does not imply that those ountries are the optimal reference population among them.

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Kjærgaard S, Canudas-Romo V, Vaupel JW. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models. 2016. Abstract fra European Population Conference, Mainz, Tyskland.