The diversity of population responses to environmental change

Fernando Colchero, Owen R Jones, Dalia A Conde, David Hodgson, Felix Zajitschek, Benedikt R Schmidt, Aurelio F Malo, Susan C Alberts, Peter H Becker, Sandra Bouwhuis, Anne M Bronikowski, Kristel M De Vleeschouwer, Richard J Delahay, Stefan Dummermuth, Eduardo Fernández-Duque, John Frisenvaenge, Martin Hesselsøe, Sam Larson, Jean-François Lemaître, Jennifer McDonald & 12 andre David A W Miller, Colin O'Donnell, Craig Packer, Becky E Raboy, Chris J Reading, Erik Wapstra, Henri Weimerskirch, Geoffrey M While, Annette Baudisch, Thomas Flatt, Tim Coulson, Jean-Michel Gaillard

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Resumé

The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEcology Letters
Vol/bind22
Udgave nummer2
Sider (fra-til)342-353
ISSN1461-023X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - feb. 2019

Fingeraftryk

environmental change
population growth
demographic statistics
fecundity
population dynamics
extinction
perturbation
climate change
prediction
simulation
rate

Citer dette

Colchero, Fernando ; Jones, Owen R ; Conde, Dalia A ; Hodgson, David ; Zajitschek, Felix ; Schmidt, Benedikt R ; Malo, Aurelio F ; Alberts, Susan C ; Becker, Peter H ; Bouwhuis, Sandra ; Bronikowski, Anne M ; De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M ; Delahay, Richard J ; Dummermuth, Stefan ; Fernández-Duque, Eduardo ; Frisenvaenge, John ; Hesselsøe, Martin ; Larson, Sam ; Lemaître, Jean-François ; McDonald, Jennifer ; Miller, David A W ; O'Donnell, Colin ; Packer, Craig ; Raboy, Becky E ; Reading, Chris J ; Wapstra, Erik ; Weimerskirch, Henri ; While, Geoffrey M ; Baudisch, Annette ; Flatt, Thomas ; Coulson, Tim ; Gaillard, Jean-Michel. / The diversity of population responses to environmental change. I: Ecology Letters. 2019 ; Bind 22, Nr. 2. s. 342-353.
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title = "The diversity of population responses to environmental change",
abstract = "The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.",
keywords = "Age-structured population models, Bayesian inference, fecundity, mortality, survival",
author = "Fernando Colchero and Jones, {Owen R} and Conde, {Dalia A} and David Hodgson and Felix Zajitschek and Schmidt, {Benedikt R} and Malo, {Aurelio F} and Alberts, {Susan C} and Becker, {Peter H} and Sandra Bouwhuis and Bronikowski, {Anne M} and {De Vleeschouwer}, {Kristel M} and Delahay, {Richard J} and Stefan Dummermuth and Eduardo Fern{\'a}ndez-Duque and John Frisenvaenge and Martin Hessels{\o}e and Sam Larson and Jean-Fran{\cc}ois Lema{\^i}tre and Jennifer McDonald and Miller, {David A W} and Colin O'Donnell and Craig Packer and Raboy, {Becky E} and Reading, {Chris J} and Erik Wapstra and Henri Weimerskirch and While, {Geoffrey M} and Annette Baudisch and Thomas Flatt and Tim Coulson and Jean-Michel Gaillard",
note = "{\circledC} 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2019",
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language = "English",
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Colchero, F, Jones, OR, Conde, DA, Hodgson, D, Zajitschek, F, Schmidt, BR, Malo, AF, Alberts, SC, Becker, PH, Bouwhuis, S, Bronikowski, AM, De Vleeschouwer, KM, Delahay, RJ, Dummermuth, S, Fernández-Duque, E, Frisenvaenge, J, Hesselsøe, M, Larson, S, Lemaître, J-F, McDonald, J, Miller, DAW, O'Donnell, C, Packer, C, Raboy, BE, Reading, CJ, Wapstra, E, Weimerskirch, H, While, GM, Baudisch, A, Flatt, T, Coulson, T & Gaillard, J-M 2019, 'The diversity of population responses to environmental change', Ecology Letters, bind 22, nr. 2, s. 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13195

The diversity of population responses to environmental change. / Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Conde, Dalia A; Hodgson, David; Zajitschek, Felix; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Malo, Aurelio F; Alberts, Susan C; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bronikowski, Anne M; De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M; Delahay, Richard J; Dummermuth, Stefan; Fernández-Duque, Eduardo; Frisenvaenge, John; Hesselsøe, Martin; Larson, Sam; Lemaître, Jean-François; McDonald, Jennifer; Miller, David A W; O'Donnell, Colin; Packer, Craig; Raboy, Becky E; Reading, Chris J; Wapstra, Erik; Weimerskirch, Henri; While, Geoffrey M; Baudisch, Annette; Flatt, Thomas; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel.

I: Ecology Letters, Bind 22, Nr. 2, 02.2019, s. 342-353.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - The diversity of population responses to environmental change

AU - Colchero, Fernando

AU - Jones, Owen R

AU - Conde, Dalia A

AU - Hodgson, David

AU - Zajitschek, Felix

AU - Schmidt, Benedikt R

AU - Malo, Aurelio F

AU - Alberts, Susan C

AU - Becker, Peter H

AU - Bouwhuis, Sandra

AU - Bronikowski, Anne M

AU - De Vleeschouwer, Kristel M

AU - Delahay, Richard J

AU - Dummermuth, Stefan

AU - Fernández-Duque, Eduardo

AU - Frisenvaenge, John

AU - Hesselsøe, Martin

AU - Larson, Sam

AU - Lemaître, Jean-François

AU - McDonald, Jennifer

AU - Miller, David A W

AU - O'Donnell, Colin

AU - Packer, Craig

AU - Raboy, Becky E

AU - Reading, Chris J

AU - Wapstra, Erik

AU - Weimerskirch, Henri

AU - While, Geoffrey M

AU - Baudisch, Annette

AU - Flatt, Thomas

AU - Coulson, Tim

AU - Gaillard, Jean-Michel

N1 - © 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2019/2

Y1 - 2019/2

N2 - The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

AB - The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

KW - Age-structured population models

KW - Bayesian inference

KW - fecundity

KW - mortality

KW - survival

U2 - 10.1111/ele.13195

DO - 10.1111/ele.13195

M3 - Journal article

VL - 22

SP - 342

EP - 353

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 2

ER -