The Age-Trajectory of Infant Mortality in the United States: Parametric Models and Generative Mechanisms

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While there is a consensus that the risk of death follows a Gompertz law over much of the adult age span, no such agreement exists about the parametric form of mortality at the very beginning of life with most literature on the topic suggesting either an exponential or various power-law expressions.

In this paper I aim to identify the parametric shape of the infant mortality age-trajectory as observed in recent US birth cohorts across a range of social and medical strata.

Age-specific infant mortality in the US displays both power-law and exponential behavior and is better described by a product of those functions: an "exponentially-truncated power-law". Across all infant populations under consideration the age-trajectory of mortality following birth is initially dominated by a power-law regime and over the course of infancy eventually approaches an exponential decline of less than a 1% reduction per additional day of age. The hazard of infant death varies in a highly non-proportional fashion by prematurity and health of the infant upon birth.

The exponentially-truncated power-law hazard is a novel tool for the study of infant mortality being more parsimonious than smoothing-splines while providing interpretable parameters and an excellent fit over a range of diverse populations. The transition from a power-law dominated neonatal mortality schedule to an exponential post-neonatal hazard has not been noted before and suggests an underlying shock-recovery or mortality selection process.
Antal sider33
StatusUdgivet - 2019
BegivenhedPAA Anual Conference - , USA
Varighed: 10. apr. 201913. apr. 2019


KonferencePAA Anual Conference

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