Techno-economic comparison of green methanol imports versus domestic production in Denmark

E-methanol is expected to play a key role in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. However, whether e-methanol should be produced locally in regions with high electricity prices or imported from locations with low electricity prices remains an open question. This study investigates the locations with the lowest levelized cost of methanol and determines the cost of shipping to Esbjerg, Denmark. Locations in Australia, Chile, Spain, Mauritania, and Denmark were investigated to determine where the production costs were the lowest and whether import or domestic production resulted in a lower fuel cost for Denmark. The analyzed e-methanol plant includes local renewable electricity generation, electrolysis, battery and hydrogen storage, CO2 supply/capture, water desalination, methanol synthesis, and methanol transport/storage to/in Denmark in import scenarios. The OptiPlant framework is applied to optimize the size of the main components at each location, considering different electrolysis technologies, wind turbine options, and access to the local electricity grid. The optimized configurations are subsequently evaluated through a techno-economic assessment. The results show that alkaline electrolysis consistently outperforms solid oxide electrolysis across all locations, mainly due to lower stack replacement costs. The findings indicate that renewable-resource quality, specifically site-specific solar and wind availability, is more influential than electrolyser technology choice in determining global e-methanol competitiveness. When direct air capture is used, all investigated import locations, except Australia, result in a lower levelized cost of methanol for import compared to domestic production in Denmark. The lowest levelized cost of methanol is achieved in Mauritania (276 €/t, including shipping to Denmark) using a semi-islanded methanol production plant based on alkaline electrolysis.