Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

Bidragets oversatte titel: Scenarieforskning - kan man forudsige fremtiden?

Julia Stacey, Anne-Mette Sonne

Publikation: Kapitel i bog/rapport/konference-proceedingKapitel i bogFormidling

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Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tell so he orders the fish anyway. What else should he get? He has another look at the web site and finds suggestions for side dishes: New potatoes and a green salad. The ingredients for the salad are, of course, rinsed and ready to serve and the potatoes only need a short boil. Mr. Jensen likes the foods suggested and orders. Having sent the order, Mr. Jensen no longer worries about the dinner. He knows that the supermarket will send the groceries to his house in a cooler and that they will be there when he gets home. The Jensen family is always on the move and therefore often buys convenience foods. Thanks to genetic screening, the supermarket is aware of the fact that the Jensen family has a hereditary tendency to certain diseases and therefore should avoid certain foods. The supermarket makes sure that these foods never end up among the family's purchases. Nobody can predict the future and nobody knows whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future of the Danish food industry. A scenario is a description of a possible and likely future and can be used to explore future developments. What will happen in the food industry if sales of functional foods increase? - What will happen if e-commerce seriously strikes through in the food industry? The purpose of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated.
Bidragets oversatte titelScenarieforskning - kan man forudsige fremtiden?
TitelAnnual report
ForlagÅrhus: Institut for Markedsøkonomi/MAPP Centret, Handelshøjskolen i Århus
StatusUdgivet - 2000
Udgivet eksterntJa


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