Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Zhi Cao, Christopher O'Sullivan, Juan Tan, Per Kalvig, Luca Ciacci, Weiqiang Chen, Junbeum Kim, Gang Liu

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Resumé

Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEnvironmental Science & Technology
Vol/bind53
Udgave nummer19
Sider (fra-til)11313-11322
Antal sider10
ISSN0013-936X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1. okt. 2019

Fingeraftryk

material flow analysis
wind power
Wind power
energy
engineering
resource
energy resource
material
Energy resources
sensitivity analysis
global climate
Sensitivity analysis
climate

Citer dette

Cao, Zhi ; O'Sullivan, Christopher ; Tan, Juan ; Kalvig, Per ; Ciacci, Luca ; Chen, Weiqiang ; Kim, Junbeum ; Liu, Gang. / Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power : A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis. I: Environmental Science & Technology. 2019 ; Bind 53, Nr. 19. s. 11313-11322.
@article{69944d8494c64356b157bd66b10e59da,
title = "Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis",
abstract = "Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100{\%} renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.",
author = "Zhi Cao and Christopher O'Sullivan and Juan Tan and Per Kalvig and Luca Ciacci and Weiqiang Chen and Junbeum Kim and Gang Liu",
year = "2019",
month = "10",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1021/acs.est.9b03765",
language = "English",
volume = "53",
pages = "11313--11322",
journal = "Environmental Science & Technology (Washington)",
issn = "0013-936X",
publisher = "American Chemical Society",
number = "19",

}

Cao, Z, O'Sullivan, C, Tan, J, Kalvig, P, Ciacci, L, Chen, W, Kim, J & Liu, G 2019, 'Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power: A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis', Environmental Science & Technology, bind 53, nr. 19, s. 11313-11322. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b03765

Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power : A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis. / Cao, Zhi; O'Sullivan, Christopher; Tan, Juan; Kalvig, Per; Ciacci, Luca; Chen, Weiqiang; Kim, Junbeum; Liu, Gang.

I: Environmental Science & Technology, Bind 53, Nr. 19, 01.10.2019, s. 11313-11322.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Resourcing the Fairytale Country with Wind Power

T2 - A Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

AU - Cao, Zhi

AU - O'Sullivan, Christopher

AU - Tan, Juan

AU - Kalvig, Per

AU - Ciacci, Luca

AU - Chen, Weiqiang

AU - Kim, Junbeum

AU - Liu, Gang

PY - 2019/10/1

Y1 - 2019/10/1

N2 - Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.

AB - Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.

U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.9b03765

DO - 10.1021/acs.est.9b03765

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 31455077

AN - SCOPUS:85072791986

VL - 53

SP - 11313

EP - 11322

JO - Environmental Science & Technology (Washington)

JF - Environmental Science & Technology (Washington)

SN - 0013-936X

IS - 19

ER -