On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference-proceedingBidrag til bog/antologiForskningpeer review

Resumé

This paper applies spatial dynamic panel data models to analyse the labor market dimension of interregional population flows among German federal states in the period 1993–2009. Making use of recent improvements in the estimation of space-time dynamic panel data models and the computation of meaningful scalar summary measures for the obtained regression coefficients, the empirical results show that the network of German interregional gross migration flows is subject to serial and spatial autocorrelation patterns, which affect the interpretation of the considered regional labor market signals. Using a time-dynamic spatial Durbin model as preferred empirical specification, the results indicate that regional differences in real income growth, the labor participation rate and real-estate prices impact on interregional out-migration flows. The estimated coefficients signs of the obtained space-time summary measures thereby hint at the validity of the neoclassical migration model in predicting gross out-migration flows. In order to take a closer look at the dynamic evolution the direct and indirect network effects over time, cumulative multipliers for a time horizon of up to 10 years have been computed for each variable. The results show that the speed of adjustment of the migration response towards the long-run impact of labor market signals is fast and mostly occurs within the first 3 years. Regarding the interplay of the direct and indirect effects, the estimation results uniformly hint at additive linkages for all variables. Overall, the obtained results underline the importance of a decomposition of the total effects of labor market signals on interregional migration flows by means of their spatial and temporal network dynamics.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelSpatial Econometric Interaction Modelling
RedaktørerRoberto Patuelli, Giuseppe Arbia
ForlagSpringer
Publikationsdato2016
Sider415-439
ISBN (Elektronisk)978-3-319-30196-9
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2016
NavnAdvances in Spatial Science
ISSN1430-9602

Fingeraftryk

Labour market
Dynamic panel data model
Coefficients
Income growth
Spatial model
Serials
Network dynamics
Labor
Regional labour markets
Speed of adjustment
Indirect effects
Regional differences
Participation rate
Empirical results
Decomposition
Spatial autocorrelation
Time horizon
Linkage
Price impact
Real estate

Citer dette

Mitze, T. (2016). On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time. I R. Patuelli, & G. Arbia (red.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling (s. 415-439). Springer. Advances in Spatial Science https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30196-9_16
Mitze, Timo. / On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time. Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling. red. / Roberto Patuelli ; Giuseppe Arbia. Springer, 2016. s. 415-439 (Advances in Spatial Science).
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abstract = "This paper applies spatial dynamic panel data models to analyse the labor market dimension of interregional population flows among German federal states in the period 1993–2009. Making use of recent improvements in the estimation of space-time dynamic panel data models and the computation of meaningful scalar summary measures for the obtained regression coefficients, the empirical results show that the network of German interregional gross migration flows is subject to serial and spatial autocorrelation patterns, which affect the interpretation of the considered regional labor market signals. Using a time-dynamic spatial Durbin model as preferred empirical specification, the results indicate that regional differences in real income growth, the labor participation rate and real-estate prices impact on interregional out-migration flows. The estimated coefficients signs of the obtained space-time summary measures thereby hint at the validity of the neoclassical migration model in predicting gross out-migration flows. In order to take a closer look at the dynamic evolution the direct and indirect network effects over time, cumulative multipliers for a time horizon of up to 10 years have been computed for each variable. The results show that the speed of adjustment of the migration response towards the long-run impact of labor market signals is fast and mostly occurs within the first 3 years. Regarding the interplay of the direct and indirect effects, the estimation results uniformly hint at additive linkages for all variables. Overall, the obtained results underline the importance of a decomposition of the total effects of labor market signals on interregional migration flows by means of their spatial and temporal network dynamics.",
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Mitze, T 2016, On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time. i R Patuelli & G Arbia (red), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling. Springer, Advances in Spatial Science, s. 415-439. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30196-9_16

On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time. / Mitze, Timo.

Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling. red. / Roberto Patuelli; Giuseppe Arbia. Springer, 2016. s. 415-439 (Advances in Spatial Science).

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference-proceedingBidrag til bog/antologiForskningpeer review

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Mitze T. On the Mutual Dynamics of Interregional Gross Migration Flows in Space and Time. I Patuelli R, Arbia G, red., Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling. Springer. 2016. s. 415-439. (Advances in Spatial Science). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30196-9_16