Impact of US vaccination strategy on COVID-19 wave dynamics

Corentin Cot*, Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Anna Sigridur Islind, María Óskarsdóttir, Francesco Sannino

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Abstract

We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer10960
TidsskriftScientific Reports
Vol/bind11
Udgave nummer1
Antal sider11
ISSN2045-2322
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2021

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

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