How to estimate mortality trends from grouped vital statistics

Silvia Rizzi, Ulrich Halekoh, Mikael Thinggaard, Gerda Engholm, Niels Christensen, Tom Børge Johannesen, Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen

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Resumé

Background: Mortality data at the population level are often aggregated in age classes, for example 5-year age groups with an open-ended interval for the elderly aged 85+. Capturing detailed age-specific mortality patterns and mortality time trends from such coarsely grouped data can be problematic at older ages, especially where open-ended intervals are used.

Methods: We illustrate the penalized composite link model (PCLM) for ungrouping to model cancer mortality surfaces. Smooth age-specific distributions from data grouped in age classes of adjacent calendar years were estimated by constructing a two-dimensional regression, based on B-splines, and maximizing a penalized likelihood. We show the applicability of the proposed model, analysing age-at-death distributions from cancers of all sites in Denmark from 1980 to 2014. Data were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Society and the Human Mortality Database.

Results: The main trends captured by PCLM are: (i) a decrease in cancer mortality rates after the 1990s for ages 50-75; (ii) a decrease in cancer mortality in later cohorts for young ages, especially, and very advanced ages. Comparing the raw data by single year of age, with the PCLM-ungrouped distributions, we clearly illustrate that the model fits the data with a high level of accuracy.

Conclusions: The PCLM produces detailed smooth mortality surfaces from death counts observed in coarse age groups with modest assumptions, that is Poisson distributed counts and smoothness of the estimated distribution. Hence, the method has great potential for use within epidemiological research when information is to be gained from aggregated data, because it avoids strict assumptions about the actual distributional shape.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftInternational Journal of Epidemiology
Vol/bind48
Udgave nummer2
Sider (fra-til)571-582
ISSN0300-5771
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2019

Fingeraftryk

Neoplasms
Age Groups
Age Distribution
Denmark
Databases
Research
Population

Citer dette

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title = "How to estimate mortality trends from grouped vital statistics",
abstract = "Background: Mortality data at the population level are often aggregated in age classes, for example 5-year age groups with an open-ended interval for the elderly aged 85+. Capturing detailed age-specific mortality patterns and mortality time trends from such coarsely grouped data can be problematic at older ages, especially where open-ended intervals are used.Methods: We illustrate the penalized composite link model (PCLM) for ungrouping to model cancer mortality surfaces. Smooth age-specific distributions from data grouped in age classes of adjacent calendar years were estimated by constructing a two-dimensional regression, based on B-splines, and maximizing a penalized likelihood. We show the applicability of the proposed model, analysing age-at-death distributions from cancers of all sites in Denmark from 1980 to 2014. Data were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Society and the Human Mortality Database.Results: The main trends captured by PCLM are: (i) a decrease in cancer mortality rates after the 1990s for ages 50-75; (ii) a decrease in cancer mortality in later cohorts for young ages, especially, and very advanced ages. Comparing the raw data by single year of age, with the PCLM-ungrouped distributions, we clearly illustrate that the model fits the data with a high level of accuracy.Conclusions: The PCLM produces detailed smooth mortality surfaces from death counts observed in coarse age groups with modest assumptions, that is Poisson distributed counts and smoothness of the estimated distribution. Hence, the method has great potential for use within epidemiological research when information is to be gained from aggregated data, because it avoids strict assumptions about the actual distributional shape.",
keywords = "Oldest old, Penalized composite link model, Smoothing, Two dimensions, Ungrouping, Vital statistics",
author = "Silvia Rizzi and Ulrich Halekoh and Mikael Thinggaard and Gerda Engholm and Niels Christensen and Johannesen, {Tom B{\o}rge} and Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1093/ije/dyy183",
language = "English",
volume = "48",
pages = "571--582",
journal = "International Journal of Epidemiology",
issn = "0300-5771",
publisher = "Heinemann",
number = "2",

}

How to estimate mortality trends from grouped vital statistics. / Rizzi, Silvia; Halekoh, Ulrich; Thinggaard, Mikael; Engholm, Gerda; Christensen, Niels; Johannesen, Tom Børge ; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune.

I: International Journal of Epidemiology, Bind 48, Nr. 2, 2019, s. 571-582.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

TY - JOUR

T1 - How to estimate mortality trends from grouped vital statistics

AU - Rizzi, Silvia

AU - Halekoh, Ulrich

AU - Thinggaard, Mikael

AU - Engholm, Gerda

AU - Christensen, Niels

AU - Johannesen, Tom Børge

AU - Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Background: Mortality data at the population level are often aggregated in age classes, for example 5-year age groups with an open-ended interval for the elderly aged 85+. Capturing detailed age-specific mortality patterns and mortality time trends from such coarsely grouped data can be problematic at older ages, especially where open-ended intervals are used.Methods: We illustrate the penalized composite link model (PCLM) for ungrouping to model cancer mortality surfaces. Smooth age-specific distributions from data grouped in age classes of adjacent calendar years were estimated by constructing a two-dimensional regression, based on B-splines, and maximizing a penalized likelihood. We show the applicability of the proposed model, analysing age-at-death distributions from cancers of all sites in Denmark from 1980 to 2014. Data were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Society and the Human Mortality Database.Results: The main trends captured by PCLM are: (i) a decrease in cancer mortality rates after the 1990s for ages 50-75; (ii) a decrease in cancer mortality in later cohorts for young ages, especially, and very advanced ages. Comparing the raw data by single year of age, with the PCLM-ungrouped distributions, we clearly illustrate that the model fits the data with a high level of accuracy.Conclusions: The PCLM produces detailed smooth mortality surfaces from death counts observed in coarse age groups with modest assumptions, that is Poisson distributed counts and smoothness of the estimated distribution. Hence, the method has great potential for use within epidemiological research when information is to be gained from aggregated data, because it avoids strict assumptions about the actual distributional shape.

AB - Background: Mortality data at the population level are often aggregated in age classes, for example 5-year age groups with an open-ended interval for the elderly aged 85+. Capturing detailed age-specific mortality patterns and mortality time trends from such coarsely grouped data can be problematic at older ages, especially where open-ended intervals are used.Methods: We illustrate the penalized composite link model (PCLM) for ungrouping to model cancer mortality surfaces. Smooth age-specific distributions from data grouped in age classes of adjacent calendar years were estimated by constructing a two-dimensional regression, based on B-splines, and maximizing a penalized likelihood. We show the applicability of the proposed model, analysing age-at-death distributions from cancers of all sites in Denmark from 1980 to 2014. Data were retrieved from the Danish Cancer Society and the Human Mortality Database.Results: The main trends captured by PCLM are: (i) a decrease in cancer mortality rates after the 1990s for ages 50-75; (ii) a decrease in cancer mortality in later cohorts for young ages, especially, and very advanced ages. Comparing the raw data by single year of age, with the PCLM-ungrouped distributions, we clearly illustrate that the model fits the data with a high level of accuracy.Conclusions: The PCLM produces detailed smooth mortality surfaces from death counts observed in coarse age groups with modest assumptions, that is Poisson distributed counts and smoothness of the estimated distribution. Hence, the method has great potential for use within epidemiological research when information is to be gained from aggregated data, because it avoids strict assumptions about the actual distributional shape.

KW - Oldest old

KW - Penalized composite link model

KW - Smoothing

KW - Two dimensions

KW - Ungrouping

KW - Vital statistics

U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyy183

DO - 10.1093/ije/dyy183

M3 - Journal article

VL - 48

SP - 571

EP - 582

JO - International Journal of Epidemiology

JF - International Journal of Epidemiology

SN - 0300-5771

IS - 2

ER -