Epidemiological theory of virus variants

Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Corentin Cot, Adele de Hoffer, Stefan Hohenegger*, Francesco Sannino, Shahram Vatani

*Kontaktforfatter

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Abstract

We propose a physics-inspired mathematical model underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalisation Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer127071
TidsskriftPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Vol/bind596
ISSN0378-4371
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 15. jun. 2022

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© 2022 Elsevier B.V.

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