Empirically Informed Multi-Agent Simulation of Distributed Energy Resource Adoption and Grid Overload Dynamics in Energy Communities

The rapid proliferation of residential electric vehicles (EVs), rooftop photovoltaics (PVs), and behind-the-meter batteries is transforming energy communities while introducing new operational stresses to local distribution grids. Short-duration transformer overloads, often overlooked in conventional hourly or optimization-based planning models, can accelerate asset aging before voltage limits are reached. This study introduces a second-by-second, multi-agent-based simulation (MABS) framework that couples empirically calibrated Distributed Energy Resource (DER) adoption trajectories with real-time-price (RTP)–driven household charging decisions. Using a real 160-household feeder in Denmark (2024–2025), five progressively integrated DER scenarios are evaluated, ranging from EV-only adoption to fully synchronized EV–PV–battery coupling. Results reveal that uncoordinated EV charging under RTP shifts demand to early-morning hours, causing the first transformer overload within four months. PV deployment alone offers limited relief, while adding batteries delays overload onset by 55 days. Only fully coordinated EV–PV–battery adoption postponed the first overload by three months and reduced total overload hours in 2025 by 39%. The core novelty of this work lies in combining empirically grounded adoption behavior, second-level temporal fidelity, and agent-based grid dynamics to expose transient overload mechanisms invisible to coarser models. The framework provides a diagnostic and planning tool for distribution system operators to evaluate tariff designs, bundled incentives, and coordinated DER deployment strategies that enhance transformer longevity and grid resilience in future energy communities.