Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption

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Resumé

The global consequences of climate change calls
for adoption of new technologies across all sectors of society.
However, it is important to know how fast new technologies are
adopted to reach the political climate goals. This paper
presents a method for designing agent-based simulations for
studying technology adoption. The method includes the design
of simulation population, agent adoption logic, and external
factors influencing agents’ adoption decisions. A case study of
the Danish commercial greenhouses’ adoption of a smart
energy solution is investigated. The result is presented with
Roger’s technology adoption curve which can be used to
demonstrate the desired adoption rate by regulating different
simulation parameters. The adoption rate of 50% with the
return on the investment of 3 and 5 years is investigated. The
greenhouse segment of growing pot plants with an area of more
than 20,000 m2 is found to be the innovators. The simulation
result shows that the population categories of the ‘innovators’,
‘early adopters’, and ‘early majority’ don’t change between the
return on investment time of 3 and 5 years. Furthermore, the
relation of the return on investment time and the initial cost is
close to linear. Hence, a lower/higher initial cost will result in a
shorter/longer return on investment time.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TitelProceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration
Antal sider6
ForlagIEEE
StatusAccepteret/In press - 2020
Begivenhed2020 IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration (SII) - Honolulu, USA
Varighed: 12. jan. 202015. jan. 2020

Konference

Konference2020 IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration (SII)
LandUSA
ByHonolulu
Periode12/01/202015/01/2020

Fingeraftryk

Greenhouses
Climate change
Costs

Citer dette

Christensen, K., Ma, Z., Værbak, M., Demazeau, Y., & Jørgensen, B. N. (Accepteret/In press). Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption. I Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration IEEE.
@inproceedings{2ca8debb09db43e28fb0172997411831,
title = "Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption",
abstract = "The global consequences of climate change callsfor adoption of new technologies across all sectors of society.However, it is important to know how fast new technologies areadopted to reach the political climate goals. This paperpresents a method for designing agent-based simulations forstudying technology adoption. The method includes the designof simulation population, agent adoption logic, and externalfactors influencing agents’ adoption decisions. A case study ofthe Danish commercial greenhouses’ adoption of a smartenergy solution is investigated. The result is presented withRoger’s technology adoption curve which can be used todemonstrate the desired adoption rate by regulating differentsimulation parameters. The adoption rate of 50{\%} with thereturn on the investment of 3 and 5 years is investigated. Thegreenhouse segment of growing pot plants with an area of morethan 20,000 m2 is found to be the innovators. The simulationresult shows that the population categories of the ‘innovators’,‘early adopters’, and ‘early majority’ don’t change between thereturn on investment time of 3 and 5 years. Furthermore, therelation of the return on investment time and the initial cost isclose to linear. Hence, a lower/higher initial cost will result in ashorter/longer return on investment time.",
author = "Kristoffer Christensen and Zheng Ma and Magnus V{\ae}rbak and Yves Demazeau and J{\o}rgensen, {Bo N{\o}rregaard}",
year = "2020",
language = "English",
booktitle = "Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration",
publisher = "IEEE",
address = "United States",

}

Christensen, K, Ma, Z, Værbak, M, Demazeau, Y & Jørgensen, BN 2020, Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption. i Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration. IEEE, 2020 IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration (SII), Honolulu, USA, 12/01/2020.

Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption. / Christensen, Kristoffer; Ma, Zheng; Værbak, Magnus; Demazeau, Yves; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard.

Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration. IEEE, 2020.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport/konference-proceedingKonferencebidrag i proceedingsForskningpeer review

TY - GEN

T1 - Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption

AU - Christensen, Kristoffer

AU - Ma, Zheng

AU - Værbak, Magnus

AU - Demazeau, Yves

AU - Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - The global consequences of climate change callsfor adoption of new technologies across all sectors of society.However, it is important to know how fast new technologies areadopted to reach the political climate goals. This paperpresents a method for designing agent-based simulations forstudying technology adoption. The method includes the designof simulation population, agent adoption logic, and externalfactors influencing agents’ adoption decisions. A case study ofthe Danish commercial greenhouses’ adoption of a smartenergy solution is investigated. The result is presented withRoger’s technology adoption curve which can be used todemonstrate the desired adoption rate by regulating differentsimulation parameters. The adoption rate of 50% with thereturn on the investment of 3 and 5 years is investigated. Thegreenhouse segment of growing pot plants with an area of morethan 20,000 m2 is found to be the innovators. The simulationresult shows that the population categories of the ‘innovators’,‘early adopters’, and ‘early majority’ don’t change between thereturn on investment time of 3 and 5 years. Furthermore, therelation of the return on investment time and the initial cost isclose to linear. Hence, a lower/higher initial cost will result in ashorter/longer return on investment time.

AB - The global consequences of climate change callsfor adoption of new technologies across all sectors of society.However, it is important to know how fast new technologies areadopted to reach the political climate goals. This paperpresents a method for designing agent-based simulations forstudying technology adoption. The method includes the designof simulation population, agent adoption logic, and externalfactors influencing agents’ adoption decisions. A case study ofthe Danish commercial greenhouses’ adoption of a smartenergy solution is investigated. The result is presented withRoger’s technology adoption curve which can be used todemonstrate the desired adoption rate by regulating differentsimulation parameters. The adoption rate of 50% with thereturn on the investment of 3 and 5 years is investigated. Thegreenhouse segment of growing pot plants with an area of morethan 20,000 m2 is found to be the innovators. The simulationresult shows that the population categories of the ‘innovators’,‘early adopters’, and ‘early majority’ don’t change between thereturn on investment time of 3 and 5 years. Furthermore, therelation of the return on investment time and the initial cost isclose to linear. Hence, a lower/higher initial cost will result in ashorter/longer return on investment time.

M3 - Article in proceedings

BT - Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration

PB - IEEE

ER -

Christensen K, Ma Z, Værbak M, Demazeau Y, Jørgensen BN. Agent-based Simulation Design for Technology Adoption. I Proceeding of IEEE/SICE International Symposium on System Integration. IEEE. 2020