Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification: The case of geohazard assessments

Ibsen Chivata Cardenas*, Terje Aven, Roger Flage

*Kontaktforfatter

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Abstract

We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftGeoscientific Model Development
Vol/bind16
Udgave nummer6
Sider (fra-til)1601-1615
ISSN1991-959X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 21. mar. 2023
Udgivet eksterntJa

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