TY - JOUR
T1 - Addressing challenges in uncertainty quantification
T2 - The case of geohazard assessments
AU - Cardenas, Ibsen Chivata
AU - Aven, Terje
AU - Flage, Roger
PY - 2023/3/21
Y1 - 2023/3/21
N2 - We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.
AB - We analyse some of the challenges in quantifying uncertainty when using geohazard models. Despite the availability of recently developed, sophisticated ways to parameterise models, a major remaining challenge is constraining the many model parameters involved. Additionally, there are challenges related to the credibility of predictions required in the assessments, the uncertainty of input quantities, and the conditional nature of the quantification, making it dependent on the choices and assumptions analysts make. Addressing these challenges calls for more insightful approaches yet to be developed. However, as discussed in this paper, clarifications and reinterpretations of some fundamental concepts and practical simplifications may be required first. The research thus aims to strengthen the foundation and practice of geohazard risk assessments.
U2 - 10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023
DO - 10.5194/gmd-16-1601-2023
M3 - Journal article
SN - 1991-959X
VL - 16
SP - 1601
EP - 1615
JO - Geoscientific Model Development
JF - Geoscientific Model Development
IS - 6
ER -