Coherent mortality forecasts by cause of death and disability level

Economic, social and public health institutions rely on mortality forecasts to estimate, among other things, health care and disability costs, plan social security policies or estimate the pension cost in an aging population. There is then a demand for valid and coherent forecasts for general mortality, but also for some components of mortality, such as causes of death and disability levels. Oeppen (2008) lists two main advantages to disaggregating mortality forecast: 1) the risks are known for diverse factors, as age, sex, cause of death, etc. and 2) spending (on research, capital investment, preventive measures or palliative care) could be more efficient if the forecasts were known for diverse mortality components. Such forecasts can also allow for a better specification of the morbidity process. In addition, forecasts by cause of death can better capture mortality dynamics specific to an insured population, which differ from the national population both in terms of distributions and trajectories of the cause-specific mortality.