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Personlig profil


Forecasting Mortality by Cause of Death

Forecasting mortality is a difficult problem that is undertaken by many international, government, and financial institutions. It would be useful to disaggregate these forecasts by cause of death because that would allow policy makers to identify target areas for future reductions in mortality. In addition, the ultimate cause of death may be a good guide to the period of ill health that precedes most deaths and help to indicate its cost to society. At the moment, very few institutions try to forecast mortality by cause of death because of the technical difficulties.  

One of the reasons it is more difficult is that even though the average age at death is generally rising, each person must die, so if the forecast suggests that a cause will become less important in the future, one or more of the other causes has to absorb extra deaths and not necessarily at the same age.

A second problem arises because we would like the sum of the forecasts for each cause to match the existing forecasts that do not separate the causes of death. This project undertakes basic research to explore new statistical methods that are explicitly designed to address these problems.

Fingeraftryk Fingeraftryk er baseret på at anvende teksten fra personernes videnskabelige dokumenter til at skabe et indeks med vægtede emneordskoncepter, som definerer de vigtigste emner for hver enkelt forsker.

  • 7 Lignende profiler
life expectancy Geo- og miljøvidenskab
mortality Geo- og miljøvidenskab
Compositional Data Matematik
Mortality Matematik
Forecasting Matematik
infant mortality Geo- og miljøvidenskab
Multiway Analysis Matematik
Forecast Matematik

Netværk Nyligt eksternt samarbejde på landeniveau. Dyk ned i detaljerne ved at klikke på punkterne.

Publikationer 2016 2019

  • 16 Konferenceabstrakt til konference
  • 6 Tidsskriftartikel

Forecasting causes of death by using compositional data analysis: the case of cancer deaths

Kjærgaard, S., Ergemen, Y. E., Kallestrup-Lamb, M., Oeppen, J. & Lindahl-Jacobsen, R., 13. jun. 2019, I : Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics). 68, 5, s. 1351-1370

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Compositional Data
Data analysis
53 Downloads (Pure)

The contribution of urbanization to changes in life expectancy in Scotland, 1861–1910

Torres, C., Canudas-Romo, V. & Oeppen, J., 2019, I : Population Studies. 73, 3, s. 387-404

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

Åben adgang
life expectancy
urban area
twentieth century
11 Downloads (Pure)
Åben adgang
Health Policy
Regression Analysis
Multiway Analysis
Life Table
Compositional Data

Decomposing the Differences in Cancer Mortality between Denmark and Sweden

Bergeron Boucher, M-P., Wensink, M. J., Lindahl-Jacobsen, R., Zarulli, V., Rizzi, S., Oeppen, J. & Christensen, K., 8. jan. 2018.

Publikation: Konferencebidrag uden forlag/tidsskriftKonferenceabstrakt til konferenceForskningpeer review

Delayed Diagnosis
Tobacco Use

Aktiviteter 2014 2018

Is there a universal pattern of mortality decline?

Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher (Taler), James Oeppen (Andet), Søren Kjærgaard (Andet)
jun. 2018

Aktivitet: Foredrag og mundtlige bidragKonferenceoplæg

Decomposing the differences in cancer mortality

Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher (Taler), Maarten Jan Wensink (Andet), Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen (Andet), James Oeppen (Underviser), Silvia Rizzi (Andet)
apr. 2018

Aktivitet: Foredrag og mundtlige bidragKonferenceoplæg

A Compositional Approach to Distributing Forecasts of Fertility by Birth Order

James Oeppen (Underviser)
14. feb. 201816. feb. 2018

Aktivitet: Foredrag og mundtlige bidragForedrag og præsentationer i privat eller offentlig virksomhed

Forecasting Mortality by Cause of Death

James Oeppen (Underviser)
24. okt. 2017

Aktivitet: Foredrag og mundtlige bidragGæsteforelæsning, undervisning og kursusvirksomhed ved andre universiteter

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 21st Anniversary

James Oeppen (Deltager)
18. okt. 201720. okt. 2017

Aktivitet: Deltagelse i faglig begivenhedOrganisering af eller deltagelse i workshop, kursus, seminar eller lignende

Projekter 2018 2019